ψ live model dashboard

paper track · aggregate view · no individual holdings disclosed

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Forward return distributions

each session shows the empirical distribution of settled forward returns as of that session — point-in-time, never repainted.

whisker: q05–q95 · box: q25–q75 · tick: median · latest session highlighted · every row shows its basis count

latest cross-section: every scored candidate, split at the decision threshold τ — kept vs filtered

each series carries its own selection / marking / cost caliber and its own drawdown — hover or focus a column for values. Hatched ribbon segments are backfilled historical proxy, not live readings.

series selection
indexed to 1.0 at the start of the accrual window · ribbon shows the regime label per session

regime feed

    Calibration — does the probability keep its word?

    reliability diagram: predicted probability vs observed outcome frequency. The gray curve is the historical reference track; forward dots accrue live with Wilson bands. Wide bands early on are a feature, not a defect.

    method notes